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Archive of prior posting

How Donald Trump could win, July 12, 2020

GOTI enters the Picture, July 7, 2020

Toss-ups Analysis June 5, 2020

Where we stand May 17, 2020 : Biden in the lead, but not by much.

Where we stand May 2, 2020

Comments (Nov 2, 2020)

ELECTION UPDATES	GENERAL (Not likely to change from now until election)
Polling Update with NYT comments, Oct 28, 2020 (not good for Biden)	Uneven Split of Toss-Ups, October 21, 2020
Election will be a nail-biter Moody's new forecast, Updated Oct 28, 2020	States that move together, October 17, 2020
Update on Election forecasts, October 25, 2020	Primer on Swing States, October 12, 2020
Possible scenario for a Trump Victory, Oct 14, 2020	Abramowitz Equation, Could it be this simple? September 27, 2020
Update on Election forecasts, October 5, 2020	The Contested Election, September 13, 2020
Update on Election forecasts, September 12, 2020	The Red Mirage, September 4, 2020
Update on Election forecasts, August 23, 2020	Vote 2020 August 14, 2020
Update on Toss-Up States, August 20, 2020	The Primary Model August 13, 2020
The Senate and House of Representatives elections, August 11, 2020	Summary of the 13 Keys to the White House, August 13, 2020
Updates on Quantitative Methods, August 11, 2020
How Donald Trump could win, July 12, 2020	Non-Polling Based Methods (only recent comments, please see webpage for other discussion)
GOTI enters the Picture, July 7, 2020	Analytical Models
	Notes of Moody's Models and Others
	Quantitative Methods' Predictions (additional comments)

 

November 2, 2020

Model	Winner	EV	Toss-ups to Biden	Total EV	Notes
Predictit	Dem	305	0	305	(1)
Sabato's Crystal Ball, Cook's Report, CNN, NPR, US News and World Reports, Election Projections, 270 to Win Consensus Forecast, Five thirty-eight	Dem	290	44	334	(2)
Inside Elections	Dem	319	15	334
Economist	Dem	334	0	334
Politico	Dem	379	55	334	(3)
Niskanen Center	Dem	318	16	334	(4)
Taegan Goddard's Political Wire Consensus	Dem	291	44	335
JHK Forecasts	Dem	335	0	335
Plural Vote	Dem	341	0	341
Princeton Election Consortium	Dem	351	0	351
YouGov	Dem	356	0	356	(5)
Real Clear Politics (no toss-up map)	Dem	357	0	357	(5)
Electoral-vote	Dem	358	0	358
Lean Toss Up	Dem	384	0	384	(6)
Our Progress	Dem	389	0	389	(6)

 

November 2, 2020

Voters in the swing states will decide the election. To win, Donald Trump must hold on to the states he won in 2016. For Biden to win, he must flip some of these states. States which Biden couldt flip, according to statewide polls, in order of the chances to flip, are: MI, WI, PA, AZ and FL. States Trump is likely to hold are GA, IA, OH and TX, with TX most likely to go Republican. Predictit suggests an extrememly close race, with Biden able to win MI, WI, AZ and PA, and a loss of PA would make the election very nearly tied. Some of the non-poll based forecasters predict Trump will win all the swing states and surpass his total in 2016. .

 

 

EV- A = sum of all candidates solids to tilts plus 1/2 of the toss up vote count.

July 18, 2020:

Model	Winner	EV-A	Model	Winner	EV-A
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem	301	Electoral-Votes	Dem	406
Cook's Report	Dem	315	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem	403
Politico	Dem	302	Real Clear Politics	Dem	323
Inside Elections	Dem	335	US News and World Report	Dem	291
Niskanen	Dem	332	JHK Forecasts	Dem	346
Predictit	Dem	334	Lean Tossup	Dem	392*
Economist	Dem	354	Plural Votes	Dem	343
CNN	Dem	283
NPR	Dem	295	Avg "Sim 538 Consensus"	Dem	335
Election Projection	Dem	350	Standard Deviation		37

 

August 19, 2020:

Model	Winner	EV-A	Model	Winner	EV-A
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem	301	Electoral-Votes	Dem	335
Cook's Report	Dem	330	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem	344
Politico	Dem	302	Real Clear Politics	Dem	323
Inside Elections	Dem	335	US News and World Report	Dem	315
Niskanen	Dem	366	JHK Forecasts	Dem	356
Predictit	Dem	319	Lean Tossup	Dem	360*
Economist	Dem	341	Plural Votes	Dem	337
CNN	Dem	318	Five Thirty Eight	Dem	316
NPR	Dem	333
Election Projection	Dem	334	Average EV		331

 

Forecasts as of Sept 11, 2020:

Model	Winner	EV-A	Model	Winner	EV-A
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem	302	Electoral-Votes	Dem	361
Cook's Report	Dem	315	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem	370
Politico	Dem	302	US News and World Report	Dem	315
Inside Elections	Dem	325	JHK Forecasts	Dem	327
Niskanen	Dem	362	Lean Tossup	Dem	366*
Predictit	Dem	319	Plural Votes	Dem	332
Economist	Dem	329	Five Thirty Eight	Dem	321
CNN	Dem	318	Ryan Gest	Dem	319
NPR	Dem	336
Election Projection	Dem	334	Average EV		331

* Model result, not a direct tally of states.