The Red Mirage

I felt the "red mirage" issue falls within the area of election predictions, and not a political one. The "final results" are expected to be known 6 to 9 days after the election when all mail-in ballots are counted. It is possible that Trump leads in both election night and the final results. It is possible that Biden does likewise. But, an analysis by a data analytic firm, Hawkfish, warns of an "highly likely scenario" where a landslide Trump victory is apparent on election night, but once the mail in ballots are counted, Biden is the real winner in the final results.

I also believe this is a very valid prediction. On the left, the country is colored red for Republican, with the exception of about six states. Colorado is colored blue, surrounded by red states. But over the next week as the mail in ballots are counted, everything changes. VBM stands for voting by mail.

Obviously, many Americans will opt to mail in their ballots. These ballots will be counted if postmarked by November 3. The reason for the increase in mail-in ballots is coronavirus. Americans are accustomed to watching the results come on election night and not be a prolonged process. This year will be different.

As shown on the map, just counting the ballots cast in person and 15% of mail-in ballots, could give a false impression that Trump won by a landslide on election night. The final result in this scenario is Biden is declared the winner with 334 electoral votes. This scenario is based on the assumption that mail in ballots will favor Biden. Josh Meddelsohn, the CEO of Hawkfish, a data analytics firm, used data from the very respected site, fivethirtyeight.com in the prediction that mail in votes should help Biden more than Trump in the key states. The scenario of Biden winning 334 electoral votes is very close to our latest the Sim 538 projection.

If this particular scenario actually plays out, it is not like Trump lost 204 EV's in a week's time. They were never his to begin with. I hope the American public will understand this. If Trump prematurely declares victory on election night, it puts Joe Biden in a terrible light, as a sore loser for not conceding the election.

So, what should happen? I hope the major cable news networks (Fox, CNN, MSNBC, CNBC, BBC) all act responsibly and hold off declaring projected winners in key states, until sufficient mail in ballots are counted. It may not be very satisfying but a map showing about 10 to 15 states as "undecided" is the correct way to go on election night.

Unfortunately, there will be live streaming websites and podcasts, implying that the only real results are those on election day at polling locations. Yes, these are real results, but obviously an unreliable and incomplete count. If Trump's lead fades after election date, then words like "false" or "fake" data are totally inappropriate. It is just a more more complete count of ballots. I hope people will understand this.

Both candidates should not use premature results to make speeches indicating they have won. I believe both candidates should respect the final tally which will be certified by each Board of Elections in each state. I'm more hopeful that Joe Biden will do this, and just say "Well, let's hold off until the mail in ballots have been counted." Candidates can contest the tally of a particular state in court as Presidential candidate Al Gore did in 2000.

David Lord