Links:

State Ranking Sites (Only nonpartisan websites will be included)

270 to Win

This is an excellent site, and we are very glad they allow us to create links to their maps. 270towin.com is a nonpartisan American political website that projects who will win United States presidential elections and also allows users to create their own electoral maps. It also tracks the results of United States presidential elections by state throughout the country's history. The website regularly has news updates, usually about a topic related to elections, such as campaign announcements or retirements. Currently, there are several types of maps users can create. The website also has useful information about elections and the political system, such as presidential electoral results dating back to 1789, pundit forecasts, voting history and trends by state (dating back to statehood), polling data, live updates during elections, and other useful information.

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Sabato’s Crystal Ball is a comprehensive, nonpartisan political analysis and handicapping newsletter run by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Founded in advance of the 2002 elections, the Crystal Ball is produced by Editor in Chief Larry J. Sabato, also the Center for Politics’ director, with Managing Editor Kyle Kondik and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman. The Crystal Ball keeps tabs on presidential elections, along with every race for the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, and state governor. Besides forecasting the winners, the Crystal Ball provides analysis of trends in American politics and elections, and it features outside contributors such as Senior Columnists Alan Abramowitz of Emory University; longtime congressional reporter and analyst Rhodes Cook; and PolitiFact‘s Louis Jacobson.

Cook's Political Report

Charlie Cook is the Editor and Publisher of The Cook Political Report, and a political analyst for the National Journal Group. Charlie is also a political analyst for NBC News. In 1984, Charlie founded the independent, non-partisan Cook Political Report. Now, with a staff of six, it is a publication that the New York Times once said was “a newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative” while CBS News’ Bob Schieffer called it “the bible of the political community.”

Politico Election Forecast

Politico, known originally as The Politico, is an American political opinion company based in Arlington County, Virginia, that covers politics and policy in the United States and internationally. It distributes content through its website, television, printed newspapers, radio, and podcasts. Its coverage in Washington, D.C. includes the U.S. Congress, lobbying, the media, and the presidency. So, predicting who might win the election is really a small part of their overall news coverage.

They have stated as of November 2019, that the election is too close to call. I think their discussion of the swing states is very worthwhile reading.

Inside Election

Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales provides nonpartisan analysis of campaigns for Senate, House, governor and president. It does not endorse candidates.

Electoral Vote

Electoral-Vote.com (formally Electoral Vote Predictor) is a website created by computer scientist Andrew S. Tanenbaum. In the periods leading up to U.S. federal elections, the site's primary content is poll analysis to project election outcomes. Since the 2016 elections, the site also has featured daily commentary on political news stories.

The site was immensely popular in 2004, ranking in the top 1000 Websites in the world and the top 10 blogs in the world, with about 700,000 visitors a day. In some surveys, it was the most popular election site in the country. In 2006, it tracked the Senate and House elections. In 2008, it tracked the presidential and congressional races and was getting over 1 million visitors a day at the end. In 2010 it did the Senate and House. In 2012 it tracked the presidential race and the Senate but not the House because House races are polled too infrequently and there is no historical data for the new congressional districts to fill in the many gaps. Unlike other sites, which track generic national polls, this site tracks the state-by-state polls. After all, the presidency is decided by 51 separate state elections and the Senate by elections in almost three dozen states. As new state polls are released, the maps, spreadsheets, tables, graphs, etc. will be updated. In the maps, the states with white centers are statistical ties and are subject to rapid fluctuations.

When my site was just at the conceptual stage, I received from valuable advice from Andrew Tanenbaum and his associate Chris Bates.

Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy

The Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy was established in 2007 to provide unbiased and non-partisan scientific research about public policy issues facing Virginia. Without such information, Virginia’s elected leaders face increasingly difficult decisions with little guidance and feedback from the citizens they represent. This dialogue between the public and policy makers on important issues facing the Commonwealth is fundamental to the development of good public policy.

Raquel Bitecofer, an analyst with the Center, concludes after identifying the rankings of all states: "Barring a shock to the system, Democrats recapture the presidency." This was stated in July 2019, and all prognosticators reserve the right to change their opinions.

Other valuable sites

*** Will include more websites in the future. These listed below are likely to predict election outcomes, provide polling data, and keep up with events. Those providing polling data are too numerous to list. Certainly, Gallup polls are excellent source as it fivethirtyeight.com.

New York Times Upshot Page

This was one of the best websites in 2016, in making comparisons with the dozen or so forecasts available. I'm expecting Nate Cohn to do the same this year. I think they are just waiting until the Democratic candidate is selected.

Five-Thirty-Eight website

Nate Silver's site provided extensive predictions and analysis in the 2016 election, and I'm hoping after the Democratic candidate is selected, we will see more activity on his site.

Wikipedia: 2020 Elections

Definitely one of the best sites for polling information, consolidating many of the polls. Wikipedia is always factual, nonpartisan and well organized. I always donate to them, because I feed off of their timely data and information as any real news junkie would.

*** I expect after June, a lot more sites will become active, typically giving more coverage to swing states.

Unconventional Forecaster

Allan Lichtman: 13 Keys to the White House

There are 13 ‘keys’ that help unlock the White House, according to Professor and American political historian Allan Lichtman. The incumbent party needs 7 or more of these keys in order to stay in the White House. Crucially, this method of predicting which party will win the 2020 election does not use any polling data. Instead, factors like the economy, achievements of the current administration, and candidates’ charisma will determine which party gets elected. According to Allan Lichtman, who teaches at the American University in Washington, D.C., this method is more accurate than polling, and has predicted outcomes correctly since the 1980’s.

Correlation/Linear Regression Models

Moody's Presidential Election Model

Moody's stated they intend to update their model monthly, perhaps after the Democratic Primary. I hope to add to the discussion of these models in the near future on the Methods page.

What Will Happen in the 2020 Election? Hint: It’s going to be very close

Using Data Science to Predict Who Will Win the 2020 Presidential Election